▹ Brother Votes for Brother: Pentecostal Expansion and Voting in Brazil
Awarded LACEA’s Londoño Prize in 2023
Media: VoxEU.org, uc3nomics (English); Nada es Gratis (Spanish)
Pentecostals play an increasingly important role in Latin American politics, supporting pastors and right-wing candidates for elected office. I study the Summer Institute of Linguistics (SIL), a 20th-century U.S. evangelical organization focused on translating the Bible
into local languages around the world. Exploiting the staggered timing of its translations into indigenous languages in Brazil, I first find that SIL exposure increased Pentecostal affiliation in municipalities where these languages are spoken. I then find that municipalities with greater SIL exposure subsequently experienced higher vote shares for right-wing candidates in presidential elections and for candidates associated with evangelical churches in federal elections.
▹ The Catholic Church and Redistributive Conflict: The Effects of John Paul II’s Rollback of Progressivism in Brazil
Papal transitions can lead to shifts in doctrinal emphasis within domestic churches. This paper examines the impact of such shifts by analyzing the Catholic Church’s rollback of progressivism in Latin America following Pope John Paul II’s 1978 appointment, which curbed the influence of progressive priests and bishops who had actively promoted redistributive agendas and supported numerous redistribution movements. Focusing on Brazil, where progressives played a central role in the landless movement, we leverage the staggered replacement of progressive bishops with conservative successors upon reaching retirement age, to study the effect of this rollback on land conflict. We find that the removal of progressive leaders significantly reduced land invasions, primarily by curtailing new conflicts under conservative bishops. This effect was most pronounced in areas where the Church itself was a major landholder, suggesting that conservative bishops acted at least partially to preserve institutional interests by limiting redistribution. These findings highlight how shifts in Church leadership can shape the conditions under which redistributive movements emerge or are suppressed, offering broader insights into the role of religious institutions in social conflict.
▹ Religious Backlash to Sexual Education: Evidence from Zambia
Draft available upon request
Sexual and reproductive health policies often confront deeply rooted religious opposition that can limit their effectiveness. We study Zambia’s 2014 Comprehensive Sexuality Education reform and its interaction with non-traditional Christian churches that opposed it. Using pre-reform variation in church exposure, we find lower contraceptive use and higher teen pregnancy among adolescents in more-exposed areas after the reform, persisting through 2024. We find no evidence of lower school participation or lower measured HIV-related knowledge in more-exposed areas. More-exposed areas also showed lower approval of government performance and greater civic engagement, consistent with broader political backlash.
▹ Does crime increase support for far-right movements? The case of the favelas in Rio de Janeiro
In 2018 the homicide rate was reaching its historical record in Brazil and Bolsonaro ran for elections with an aggressive anti-crime platform. In this paper, I exploit a quasi-experimental variation generated by introducing police units in favelas near the Olympic facilities of Rio de Janeiro. For each census tract in Rio de Janeiro I show there is variation in the homicide rate according to proximity to a favela and whether or not there are police units installed. In addition, I show that the introduction of police units also had an effect on the votes obtained by Bolsonaro in 2018. Results suggest that an increase of one homicide per 100,000 inhabitants corresponds to a 2.8 p.p. increase in the share of votes won by Bolsonaro in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro.
